Matthew Griffin, described as “The Adviser behind the Advisers” and a “Young Kurzweil,” is the founder and CEO of the World Futures Forum and the 311 Institute, a global Futures and Deep Futures consultancy working between the dates of 2020 to 2070, and is an award winning futurist, and author of “Codex of the Future” series. Regularly featured in the global media, including AP, BBC, Bloomberg, CNBC, Discovery, RT, Viacom, and WIRED, Matthew’s ability to identify, track, and explain the impacts of hundreds of revolutionary emerging technologies on global culture, industry and society, is unparalleled. Recognised for the past six years as one of the world’s foremost futurists, innovation and strategy experts Matthew is an international speaker who helps governments, investors, multi-nationals and regulators around the world envision, build and lead an inclusive, sustainable future. A rare talent Matthew’s recent work includes mentoring Lunar XPrize teams, re-envisioning global education and training with the G20, and helping the world’s largest organisations envision and ideate the future of their products and services, industries, and countries. Matthew's clients include three Prime Ministers and several governments, including the G7, Accenture, Aon, Bain & Co, BCG, Credit Suisse, Dell EMC, Dentons, Deloitte, E&Y, GEMS, Huawei, JPMorgan Chase, KPMG, Lego, McKinsey, PWC, Qualcomm, SAP, Samsung, Sopra Steria, T-Mobile, and many more.
WHY THIS MATTERS IN BRIEF
The ocean contains a huge amount of heat energy, but so far tapping into it hasn’t been easy. But that might change.
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When it comes to the future of energy we’re all familiar with the conventional forms of energy whether it’s hydrogen, nuclear, renewables, or even perhaps fusion. But what about ocean thermal energy plants? In the tropics, the deep sea is cold and the sea surface is very warm. That temperature difference can be harnessed and turned into electricity. And, if we can improve the technology, this method of producing power could be a godsend especially for island nations reliant on expensive and polluting diesel for their power.
For more than a century, researchers have explored the idea of ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC). There’s nothing fundamentally new to the idea of extracting power from temperature differences, after all that’s what all kinds of thermoelectric generators – some of which are now helping solar panels generate electricity 247 – are already harnessing. In fact, the underlying technology is similar to the way coal, gas and geothermal power plants create electricity, by using vapor to spin a turbine.
The Future of Energy 2050, by keynote futurist Matthew Griffin
The challenge though is finding the right spot, where the temperature differences make it worthwhile. In the case of ocean thermal energy plants that means relatively close to the equator — think north of Papua New Guinea, the Philippines, and off the coast of southern Japan. At present, pilot plants are only able to generate a fraction of what a large wind turbine can. But on the positive side, ocean thermal plants can generate power 24 hours a day irrespective of any other factors.
These power plants operate by running liquids with low boiling points, such as ammonia, through a closed loop. The heat from warm seawater (between 20 and 30℃) heats the liquid until it turns into vapor and can be used to spin a turbine. Then, the vapor is exposed to cold seawater (around 5℃), which turns it back into a liquid so the cycle can continue. To get this cold water, these plants have pipes stretching down 600 meters into the deep sea.
The benefits of the system are clear: it’s a closed loop, heated and cooled by heat exchangers with no discharge of the fluid to the ocean. And it’s available at all times, in contrast to the well-known intermittency challenges of better developed renewable technologies like solar and wind.
The downside is at present, the technology isn’t ready for prime time. A pilot plant in Hawaii installed by Makai Ocean Engineering in 2015 has a capacity of 100 kilowatts. That’s 20–30 times less than a typical wind turbine when operating, or the equivalent of around 12 solar arrays on homes or small businesses in Australia.
The main technical challenge to overcome is getting access to the large volumes of cold seawater required. Makai’s pilot uses a pipe one meter in diameter which plunges 670 meters into the ocean depths.
To scale up to a more useful 100-megawatt plant, Makai estimates the pipe would have to be ten meters in diameter and go as deep as one kilometer. This kind of infrastructure is expensive and must be built to withstand corrosion and cyclones.
If the plants are built offshore, the cost of transmission lines adds to the overall expense. Makai estimates 12 commercial-scale offshore plants could cover Hawaii’s total electricity needs.
If OTEC plants can be built large enough, the cost will come down. But there’s another challenge too. To get close to wind and solar’s cost – now as low as 1–2 cents per kilowatt hour – ocean thermal plants would need around four Niagara Falls worth of water flowing through the system at any one time.
Why is such a huge volume of water required? In short, a thermodynamic bottleneck. The physics of any energy conversion mean it’s impossible to convert all the heat energy into mechanical work like spinning the turbine. This efficiency issue is a real challenge for ocean thermal plants, where the energy conversion process has a relatively small temperature difference between warm and cool seawater. In turn, that means only a very small percentage of the heat energy in the seawater is converted to electricity.
While these plants couldn’t compete with wind and solar in large mainland markets, they could have a role for the small island states dotting the Pacific and Caribbean, as well as islands far from the main grid, such as Norfolk Island or many of the smaller Indonesian islands.
Island nations, in particular, tend to have high retail electricity prices, low electricity demand and a reliance on imported diesel for electricity generation. Researchers from South Korea and New Zealand have made the case that OTEC could be a viable source of baseload power for island states – but only after more pilot plants are built to help perfect the design of larger plants.
Most people though if tasked with helping an island state produce its own clean energy might first look at geothermal – a more mature technology with better economics. That’s because the areas most favorable for OTEC plants typically have significant potential for geothermal electricity as well, produced by drilling wells on land and using high-temperature fluids from those wells.
Still, OTEC could play a useful role in tackling several challenges at once. Take cooling. You can take the cool seawater and use as a form of air conditioning, as two resorts in French Polynesia are doing. You can also use this cool water in aquaculture to raise cold-water fish such as salmon, or as a way of keeping surface water cool during marine heatwaves threatening fish farming in New Zealand. It may even be possible to use OTEC plants to produce hydrogen as an export commodity in small island states. To meet our urgent emission reduction goals, it is worth exploring all renewable energy options.
Despite all the pros and cons though Hawaii for one isn’t writing off OTEC just yet. At this stage, however, it’s hard to see how ocean thermal plants can become competitive with better-established renewables, such as wind, solar, and even geothermal, given the vast volumes of cold seawater required so despite the renewed interest in the technology I for one would file it under “has potential, but needs more work”.