Matthew Griffin, described as “The Adviser behind the Advisers” and a “Young Kurzweil,” is the founder and CEO of the World Futures Forum and the 311 Institute, a global Futures and Deep Futures consultancy working between the dates of 2020 to 2070, and is an award winning futurist, and author of “Codex of the Future” series. Regularly featured in the global media, including AP, BBC, CNBC, Discovery, RT, and Viacom, Matthew’s ability to identify, track, and explain the impacts of hundreds of revolutionary emerging technologies on global culture, industry and society, is unparalleled. Recognised for the past six years as one of the world’s foremost futurists, innovation and strategy experts Matthew is an international speaker who helps governments, investors, multi-nationals and regulators around the world envision, build and lead an inclusive, sustainable future. A rare talent Matthew’s recent work includes mentoring Lunar XPrize teams, re-envisioning global education and training with the G20, and helping the world’s largest organisations envision and ideate the future of their products and services, industries, and countries. Matthew's clients include three Prime Ministers and several governments, including the G7, Accenture, Bain & Co, BCG, Credit Suisse, Dell EMC, Dentons, Deloitte, E&Y, GEMS, Huawei, JPMorgan Chase, KPMG, Lego, McKinsey, PWC, Qualcomm, SAP, Samsung, Sopra Steria, T-Mobile, and many more.
WHY THIS MATTERS IN BRIEF
In 2050 there will be 10 billion people on the planet who need energy, and while renewable energy will help reduce energy poverty some think solar energy beamed from space, or satellites, could also help.
Infalling solar radiation constantly illuminates the Moon’s surface with the equivalent of some 13,000 terawatts of solar power. So, why not take a chunk of that energy and develop it into lunar-based solar power (LSP)? The idea would be to manufacture and deploy lunar solar power collecting stations that would concentrate and convert a portion of that Sunlight into electricity for wireless transmission back to Earth.
Far-fetched? Admittedly, it’s an idea that’s slightly ahead of its time, but for four decades now, retired University of Houston physicist David Criswell has been championing the notion of using several hundred square kilometers-worth of solar panels to collect infalling sunlight on the Moon, which may soon also have its first colony thanks to the European Space Agency (ESA), and even its own 4G network thanks to Vodafone, as a sustainable source of clean electricity. It’s been a lonely slog, but he’s still keen on the idea.
“By the year 2050, ten billion people will require at least 2 kilowatts of electricity per person or a global total of 20 terawatts,” says Criswell. This, he says, is nearly 70 times more energy output than what was projected from original concepts of space-based solar power from Earth orbit.
And unlike Earth orbit, Criswell contends that the lunar surface contains all the materials needed to build an LSP project’s retinue of solar cells, electric collecting wires, microwave generation and transmission equipment, microwave antennas, as well as most support equipment and supplies.
A lunar-based solar power system (LSP) could quickly be demonstrated and grow quickly enough to soon power the whole of the US Criswell says.
Such a system, Criswell says, would initially consist of ten 100 kilometer-wide circular collecting bases at the edges of the lunar nearside. The bases would be filled with billboard sized microwave reflectors that from Earth, says Criswell, would appear to overlap.
“Each base would output hundreds of separate beams directed toward Earth receivers or via redirectors in a range of Earth orbits,” said Criswell. An individual beam could then be focused to Earth-based receiving antennas spanning a few hundred-meters in diameter, he says.
Criswell’s own models of his proposed 20 terawatt LSP system provides an eventual projected wholesale price of 0.001 cents per kilowatt hours of electricity. By comparison, an average American household pays in the range of 12 cents per kilowatt hour. So, LSP ultimately would offer consumers totally clean energy at great savings.
Even so, LSP is not without its critics.
“A power station on the Moon would deliver roughly 200 gigawatts to a single location on Earth,” said John Mankins, President of Mankins Space Technology, who in 2008 proposed his own system to NASA, “there are no markets that need that amount of power in a single large chunk.”
However, no matter where such beamed power were to land on Earth, it could still be readily redistributed when and where as needed. And Spacefaring Institute President Mike Snead adds that eventually the Earth-Moon system will be ‘electrified.’ That is, so that transmitted electromagnetic radiation in microwave, terahertz, and laser wavelengths will distribute electrical power.
“Eventually, this [electric power] will extend into the central solar system,” said Snead, “as part of this electrification, there may be some benefit in providing transmitted electrical power from the lunar surface.”
He foresees “beamed power” replacing chemical propulsion with various forms of electric-thermal propulsion, but for his part, Criswell remains undaunted and says that within ten years and at a cost of $240 billion, a LSP base could be built that would generate 0.1 terawatts of electric power for delivery back to Earth. Such a project, he says, would offer investors a projected eventual return of $440 billion in gross revenue and a profit of some $200 billion.
Then within 30 to 40 years, Criswell says LSP base construction could be accelerated to deliver 20 terawatts of electric power back to Earth.
Criswell applauds the new commercial space race between SpaceX and Blue Origin which he says is generating interest in lunar project development, and he’s hopeful that such development will eventually lead to lunar-based solar power.
“I really think the Moon is our only option for sustainable and affordable electric power on a global scale,” said Criswell.
And as for the rest of us, well, as the cost of launching payloads into orbit, and to the Moon, continues to plummet, and the cost of energy collectors, from solar panels and solar aggregators, to satellite systems and solar collectors, also continues to plummet, one day, Criswell will likely see his idea put into practice, but it’s going to take time, a lot of money, and a lot of will power. The kind of will power and resources that Elon Musk has… hmmm, never say never. Crazy futurist dreamer.