Matthew Griffin, award winning Futurist and Founder of the 311 Institute, a global futures think tank, is described as "The Adviser behind the Advisers." Regularly featured on AP, CNBC, Discovery and RT, his ability to identify and track hundreds of game changing emerging technologies, and explain their impact on global culture, industry and society, is unparalleled. Recognised for the past five years running as one of the world's foremost futurists, innovation and strategy experts Matthew is an international speaker who helps governments investors, multi-nationals and regulators around the world envision, build and lead an inclusive future. A rare talent Matthew sits on the Technology and Innovation Committee (TIAC) for Centrica, one of Europe’s largest energy companies, and his recent work includes mentoring XPRIZE teams, building the first generation of biocomputers, helping the world’s largest manufacturers companies envision the next five generations of smartphones and devices, and what comes next, and helping companies including Qualcomm envision the next twenty years of semiconductors. Matthew's clients are the who’s who of industry and include Accenture, Bain & Co, BOA, Blackrock, Bloomberg, Booz Allen Hamilton, BCG, Bentley, Dell EMC, Dentons, Deloitte, Deutsche Bank, Du Pont, E&Y, Fidelity, Goldman Sachs, HPE, Huawei, JPMorgan Chase, KPMG, Lloyds Banking Group, McKinsey, Monsanto, PWC, Qualcomm, Rolls Royce, SAP, Samsung, Schroeder's, Sequoia Capital, Sopra Steria, UBS, the UK's HM Treasury, the USAF and many others.
WHY THIS MATTERS IN BRIEF
Aircraft carriers are the perfect forward operating platforms to create, deploy and support countless autonomous drone platforms, this move signals a new way to wage war and conduct operations.
Earlier this month, the British Royal Navy ship HMS Protector made history. An ice patrol ship, Protector sailed the frigid waters off Antarctica. But instead of using a helicopter to scout an ice free route, the Protector had an unlikely helper – a drone. But not just any drone, a 3D printed drone that was manufactured onboard the ship itself. And the tiny remote controlled airplane, steered by a laptop and buzzing along at speeds of up to 60 miles an hour, could be an unlikely saviour of the largest warships ever to sail – aircraft carriers.
A symbol of American military primacy since the end of World War II, there are currently 10 aircraft carriers serving with the US Navy. Each carries approximately 70 aircraft capable of bringing more firepower than the armed forces of most countries. They are, in fact, a capability no other country can currently equal.
Still, all is not well in the world of aircraft carriers. Every major weapons system becomes obsolete over time and just as the carrier took over from the battleship, technological advances have made these ships obsolete, some pundits say. Both China and Russia are pursuing so called “Anti-Access, Area Denial” (A2D) technologies that it hopes will make large parts of the Pacific too dangerous for even the most advanced aircraft carriers.
Chief among these is a network of sensors and bases, capped off with the Dong Feng-26 “carrier killer” ballistic missile. Launched from bases in China, the DF-26, with a range of 2,500 miles – compared with it’s predecessor DF-21 which had a range of only 300, was designed to attack aircraft carriers, plunging through the atmosphere at hypersonic speeds and punching through their steel decks. The DF-26 and weapons like them are notoriously hard to shoot down and this makes protecting these giant carriers an even harder task – even with some of the world’s most advanced directed energy weapons in the US’ arsenal.
There are also those that say aircraft carriers have grown too expensive. The latest, USS Gerald R. Ford, cost a whopping $17.5 billion to research, develop, and produce. That doesn’t include the $6 billion cost of the aircraft that will fly off it and a similar cost for the destroyers, cruisers, and supply ships that will sail with a typical carrier battle group. All in all, the Ford’s carrier battle group will easily cost somewhere around $30 billion.
The aircraft carrier is indeed embattled. But is its time over? Maybe not. The aircraft carrier’s greatest strength, which has allowed it to remain relevant for the last 70 years, is the fact that it carries airplanes — and airplanes can be adapted to a wide variety of missions. Carriers can launch nuclear weapons, sink submarines, destroy enemy fleets, and bring relief supplies to disaster-stricken zones. It’s a versatility unmatched by any other ship.
As aviation technology marches on, much of it makes its way onto carrier flight decks. In 2013 and 2014 the Navy’s experimental X-47B unmanned carrier aircraft performed takeoffs, landings, and aerial refuelings. And now the Navy is talking about producing its first operational drone, the MQ-25 Stingray. More drones will follow, and it’s not farfetched to think of a day when aircraft carriers – autonomous or not – are controlling an armada of autonomous battle groups, ships and drones.
Meanwhile, 3D printers can now print steel, aluminum, and titanium, and there’s no reason why the technology, scaled larger, couldn’t be used to create larger drones. A 3D printer capable of making aircraft fuselages, coupled with stores of pre-assembled aircraft components would enable the ship to build its own combat drones. The carrier becomes not just a floating airport, but a floating airplane factory. Looking further into the future we can already see newer emerging technologies – such as 4D Printing which will allow the drones to self-assemble and Chemputers which grow drones and other complex electronic assets in vats using a process called “Molecular Assembly”.
Drones, 3D printing and other advanced manufacturing technologies will help to keep carriers relevant for decades to come but one day it is likely that they will become obselete too – replaced by space based weapons.
In the meantime though drones are cheaper than manned aircraft and the infrastructure — including the human infrastructure — is also less expensive, by magnitudes. The ability to reconfigure a carrier’s drone fleet, from slow-moving attack jets that could bomb the Islamic State to stealthy, long range bombers that could out range carrier killing missiles, would keep carriers flexible and more versatile than ever.
Technology will change the way wars are fought. It takes months or even years to build an airplane, meaning that in wartime once reserves are exhausted planes cannot quickly be replaced. Using new advanced manufacturing processes, carriers could self replenish their aircraft inventories in wartime, replacing combat losses with fresh drones and build completely bespoke units suited for individual theatres and situations within weeks not years. Combat aircraft, as well as munitions, smaller ships, general purpose drones and miniature submarines would go from being a precious resource to actually being somewhat disposable — and capable of being built in large numbers, quickly.
The aircraft carrier is indeed embattled, but carriers are versatile enough to keep them in service likely for decades to come. The real threat is carriers pricing themselves out of existence, and more needs to be done to keep costs down. Technologies are on the horizon that will keep carriers relevant and affordable — but countries only pursue them if the benefits outweigh the costs.
The tiny drone printed and assembled on the HMS Protector is just a sneak peak at things to come but the story is far from over.