WHY THIS MATTERS IN BRIEF
As China continues its push to beat the US’s military prowess they’ve just “accidentally” unveilled two new Sixth Gen fighter jet prototypes.
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China has been unveiling all kinds of new military toys recently, from drone aircraft carriers and drone mother ships, to blazingly fast shock and awe cannons and next generation quantum radar systems. And now two premier jet fighter manufacturers deliberately – and unofficially – put on quite the holiday show a few weeks ago by test-flying not one but two prototype sixth-generation jet fighter designs on the same day in populated areas where the public quickly caught footage of them. Within hours, imagery of the ambitious Chinese aircraft circulated across social media.
While the prototypes’ official designations remain unconfirmed, some analysts have tentatively dubbed them the Chengdu J-36 and Shenyang J-50 based on visible serial numbers. Some Western commentators speculate the former might be related to the JH-XX program aimed at designing a supersonic fighter bomber, though Chinese sources consistently characterize both as sixth-generation fighter designs. The J-50 has also been speculatively referred to as the “SAC 6th-generation fighter,” with SAC standing for Shenyang Aircraft Corporation.
See it in action.
Neither resembles any currently operational aircraft, but both share broadly diamond-Dorito-shaped tailless airframes relying on differential use of engine thrust and multiple flaps to steer the aircraft in lieu of the tail-control surfaces. This configuration maximizes stealth by reducing the radar cross-section, but at some cost to manoeuvrability. Both also appear designed for supersonic flight.
Of the two, the J-50 is the more conventional in terms of size and its twin engine, swept-wing configuration. The J-36, by contrast, is visibly much larger than the already large J-20S fighter seen flying alongside it, and apparently boasts a third jet engine on its spine – which some theorise could be used to power a direct energy weapons system – in addition to two underslung engines. No operational combat aircraft past or present has three forward-thrust jet engines; the tri-engine configuration on the J-36 may simply reflect the need to generate more thrust for its weight or potentially for supersonic cruising. The J-36’s roomy fuselage implies an impressive internal fuel and weapons capacity.
The unorthodox air show that boasted these two jets comes at an interesting time, as America’s own long-running sixth-gen fighter program remains in limbo – perhaps indefinitely due to a lack of funding, and some argue, a lack of need. China’s new avant-garde prototypes will heighten the debate in Washington as to whether a manned sixth-generation fighter is an expensive luxury in the age of drones or a critical necessity for maintaining US air superiority in the coming decades.
No operational sixth-generation aircraft exist yet, though this generation is generally expected to combine the features of the current fifth generation – stealth and networked open-architecture systems – with expanded drone control capabilities, AI-enhanced automation, improved all-aspect stealthiness, next-generation engines generating more electricity and allowing higher sustained speeds, and greater payload allowing them to fly farther for longer, carrying more internal weapons.
Beside the US Air Force and Navy’s sixth-generation fighter programs, Western European countries and Japan are collaborating on two rival sixth-generation designs called Tempest and Future Combat Air System, and Russia is working on a sixth-generation interceptor called the PAK DP/MiG-41.
Chengdu’s chief designer Wang Haifeng announced early development work of a sixth-generation fighter in 2019. Four years later reporters reported early signs of Chinese sixth-gen fighter research maturing. But just six months ago, a top US expert on Chinese military aviation estimated it would take 10 to 20 years for China to develop such an aircraft. Granted, building an avant-garde prototype – even a flying one – isn’t the same as a production model with mature, integrated mission systems.
Still, some graphics and presentations associated with Haifeng (allegedly the J-36’s designer) sketch out design concepts including incorporation of conformal adaptive cycle engines which can reconfigure internally for efficient low or high-speed performance with an emphasis on fuel economy, cooling to reduce infrared signature, and generating lots of electricity, which could be used to power longer-range radar and jamming systems, and other things.
China’s approach to the J-36 appears to embrace the concept of “System of Systems.” That is, rather than a manned jet being designed to handle a full range of tasks by itself, it’s considered one element of a web of systems including drones, long-range missiles, and friendly forces on land, in the sea, air and even space, all connected with the fighter’s battle network.
That allows a combination of elements in the network to serve as eyes – for target acquisition and tracking – or as shooters in order to minimize potential retaliation. For example, a J-36 might discretely scout ahead until it can locate the position of an enemy carrier – then, rather than exposing itself by directly attacking, transmit guidance data to a surface-launched anti-ship ballistic missile racing toward the carrier from 1,000 miles away. Conversely, the same jet might unleash a volley of missiles at enemy fighters while keeping its radar off and relying on multiple friendly drones for target detection/tracking.
The greater range, endurance, and payload of a J-36-like heavy fighter would be especially helpful for China to interdict US aircraft and ships before they get close to Taiwanese airspace. Thus, a heavy fighter could theoretically rely on stealthiness, extra-powerful radar and jammers, long-range missiles, drones, and supersonic surge speed to avoid being forced into a close-manoeuvring fight – which, in turn, makes some reductions to manoeuvrability palatable.
As aviation writer Bill Sweetman puts it, the result may be a Chinese “fighter” that has less and less in common with what we traditionally think a fighter does, much as modern destroyer-class warships are very different from the torpedo-boat “destroyers” of the early 1900s.
That said, developing a stealthy yet aerodynamic airframe is only half the battle. At this point, it’s impossible to judge the quality of the engines, computers, sensors, weapons, and externally radar-absorbent materials from pictures on social media because many of these components have yet to be fitted to the aircraft or are still works in progress. It’s one thing to plan on next-generation engines and ultra-powerful radars to achieve impressive performance on paper – it’s another to actually fully develop these systems, integrate them conformally into the airframe, and sustainably mass-produce and operate them at an affordable price.
Still, China has already developed very long-range air-launched missiles, stealthy and jam-resistant AESA-class radars, and a diverse range of large combat drones suitable for use as “loyal wingmen,” which can accompany the jet into battle and be directed to semi-autonomously assist by using their sensors and weapons while diverting enemy fire. Meanwhile, China currently remains behind the US in propulsion and radar cross-section reduction – at least for now.
We don’t know yet what the US’s sixth-generation concepts look like. All we know is that Air Force leadership says they’re too expensive. For years, the Air Force openly seemed to accept that a long-range, air-to-air combat-focused sixth-generation fighter, called Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD), would cost the equivalent of two or three fifth-generation F-35 fighters at $250–$300 million per airframe. And as early as 2020, the service reported the test flight of an NGAD prototype.
For all we know, the American sixth-generation design concepts, and possible demonstrators, may be every bit as avant-garde as China’s concept. But none have been made public.
That’s because in spring 2024, Air Force leaders abruptly changed their tune on NGAD, saying that unless manufacturers could offer something dramatically cheaper, the service might pass on it entirely. At the moment, the Air Force is confronted with a budget crunch as it simultaneously modernizes its ground-based nuclear missile silos and introduces new B-21 Raider stealth bombers.
Giving up on NGAD was deemed acceptable because the Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) drones designed to aid NGAD in combat would also be compatible with fifth-generation F-35 fighters. The service felt the drones offered better value than NGAD itself, figuring they could take on dangerous combat tasks and implement new tactics while keeping controlling F-35s out of the line of fire.
While it’s possible the F-35/CCA combo may be more cost-efficient than fully developing and procuring NGAD, it does mean accepting the modest range of the F-35 on internal fuel and putting off development of next-generation adaptive-cycle engines.
The future of US sixth-generation jets remains unclear. The Air Force probably cannot obtain them without additional or reallocated funding, and where the service’s leadership falls on the necessity of NGAD is uncertain. However, the appearance of the new Chinese prototypes likely will create additional political pressure for a US counterpart, regardless of leadership’s opinions. The Trump administration might be influenced by China hawks or conversely Elon Musk, who broadly opposes procurement of manned combat aircraft. Meanwhile, the Navy still intends to eventually develop a carrier-based sixth-generation fighter called FA-XX according to its distinct requirements.
Without exaggerating the maturity of the newly unveiled prototypes, China’s military aviation sector has certainly demonstrated an aggressive intent to reinvent the very concept of the manned fighter plane in its bid to disrupt America’s long-standing edge in aerial warfare.