New study finds AI copies humans in the winter and gets lazier

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By Matthew Griffin Intelligence and the Senses 25th December 2023

WHY THIS MATTERS IN BRIEF

You’d never imagine that a “digital entity” could take on human traits, but they do …

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It seems that GPT-4 Turbo – the most recent incarnation of the Large Language Model (LLM) from OpenAI – winds down for the winter and gives worse answers to questions in much the same way that people who are winding down for the December holidays seem to do.

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We all get those end of year holiday season chill vibes and, after a new study, that appears to be why GPT-4 Turbo seems to be giving worse answers because when it’s been trained on datasets from December it seems to have “learned” that humans do worse work and then “adopted” those same behaviours. Weird I know right!?

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As Wccftech highlighted, the interesting observation on the AI’s behavior was made by an LLM enthusiast, Rob Lynch, on X (formerly Twitter).

The claim is that GPT-4 Turbo produces shorter responses – to a statistically significant extent – when the Artificial Intelligence (AI) believes that it’s December, as opposed to May – with the testing done by changing the date in the system prompt.

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So, the tentative conclusion is that it appears GPT-4 Turbo learns this behaviour from us, an idea advanced by Ethan Mollick who’s an Associate Professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania who specializes in AI.

Apparently GPT-4 Turbo is about 5% less productive if the AI thinks it’s the Holiday season. This is known as the ‘AI winter break hypothesis’ and it’s an area that is worth exploring further. Because not only is it odd but, yet again, it shows how oddly and unexpectedly AI’s can behave …

What it goes to show is how unintended influences can be picked up by an AI that we wouldn’t dream of considering – although some researchers obviously did notice and consider it, and then test it. But still, you get what I mean – and there’s a whole lot of worry around these kinds of unexpected developments.

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As AI progresses, its influences, and the direction that the tech takes itself in, need careful watching over, hence all the talk of safeguards for AI being vital. We’re rushing ahead with developing AI – or rather, the likes of Google, Microsoft, and OpenAI certainly are – caught up in a tech arms race, with most of the focus on driving progress as hard as possible, with safeguards being more of an afterthought.

At any rate, regarding this specific experiment, it’s just one piece of evidence that the winter break theory is true for GPT-4 Turbo, and Lynch has urged others to get in touch if they can reproduce the results – and we do have one report of a successful reproduction so far. Still, that’s not enough for a concrete conclusion yet – watch this space.

Matthew Griffin / About Author

Matthew Griffin, described as “The Adviser behind the Advisers” and a “Young Kurzweil,” is the founder and CEO of the World Futures Forum and the 311 Institute, a global Futures and Deep Futures consultancy working across the next 50 years, and is an award winning futurist, and author of “Codex of the Future” series.

Regularly featured in the global media, including AP, BBC, Bloomberg, CNBC, Discovery, RT, Viacom, and WIRED, Matthew’s ability to identify, track, and explain the impacts of hundreds of revolutionary emerging technologies on global culture, industry and society, is unparalleled. Recognised for the past six years as one of the world’s foremost futurists, innovation and strategy experts Matthew is an international speaker who helps governments, investors, multi-nationals and regulators around the world envision, build and lead an inclusive, sustainable future.

A rare talent Matthew’s recent work includes mentoring Lunar XPrize teams, re-envisioning global education and training with the G20, and helping the world’s largest organisations envision and ideate the future of their products and services, industries, and countries.

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