WHY THIS MATTERS IN BRIEF
- Faced by “cratering profits,” low margins and bankruptcy, shipping companies are starting to look at ways they can roll out autonomous cargo ships faster than planned
Last year the CEO of Rolls Royce announced his company’s grand plan to create fleets of “Ghost ships,” then, in a later article about autonomous cargo ships I shone a light on what other companies are doing in the space and discussed the development of a crewless, electrically powered Norwegian prototype that now, just a few months on, after being christened the Yara Birkeland, will start sailing in 2018. Initially the ship will have a giddy speed of just 10 knots and be used to deliver fertiliser along a 37 mile stretch of coast in southern Norway.
The electric-powered ship will be miniscule by modern standards, although Rolls Royce plan on rolling out larger ships starting 2020, with the capacity for 100 to 150 shipping containers. But its arrival could be a huge turning point for the global shipping industry.
The ship, which will cost $25 million, which is about three times as much as a conventional ship of similar size, is expected to save up to 90% in annual operating costs by eliminating both fuel and crew.
Though it is projected to launch next year, it will only transition to fully autonomous operation in stages, and just like the US’ first fully autonomous mine hunter, the Sea Hunter, which launched last year, it will first be operated by an on board crew, then remotely, before becoming fully autonomous by 2020, which is the same time that many hope new rules governing autonomous ships will come into force.
That said though that could be delayed after the world’s first GPS spoofing attack, that put more than 20 ships “at an airport” was unmasked because unless companies can find a way to prevent these spoofing attacks from happening again in the future then unmanned, autonomous ships could be a very juicy target for criminals.
The Yara Birkeland is being developed by the agricultural firm Yara International and guidance system maker Konsberg, and a Yara executive said that once regulations catch up, the company plans is to build bigger ships that could work longer routes. If similar cost savings could be achieved, it could be a lifeline for the global shipping industry, which has spent years struggling with overcapacity and falling rates, leading to cratering profits and even bankruptcy for major firms.
The impact of autonomous ships may be milder than that of self-driving freight trucks, though, when it comes to jobs. While driverless trucks could put hundreds of thousands of human drivers out of work in the US alone, the relative crew needs of shipping have already been declining for decades, from hundreds to just tens, with many container ships, including those carrying more than 10,000 containers, already using 30 crew members or less.
Matthew Griffin Global Futurist 未来学家, Tech Evangelist, XPrize Mentor ● Int'l Keynote Speaker ● Disruption, Futures and Innovation expert
Matthew Griffin, Futurist and Founder of the 311 Institute is described as “The Adviser behind the Advisers.” Among other things Matthew keeps busy helping the world’s largest smartphone manufacturers ideate the next five generations of smartphones, and what comes beyond, the world’s largest chip makers envision the next twenty years of intelligent machines, and is helping Europe’s largest energy companies re-invent energy generation, transmission and retail. Recognised in 2013, 2015 and 2016 as one of Europe’s foremost futurists, innovation and strategy experts Matthew is an award winning author, entrepreneur and international speaker who has been featured on the BBC, Discovery and other outlets. Working hand in hand with accelerators, investors, governments, multi-nationals and regulators around the world Matthew helps them envision the future and helps them transform their industries, products and go to market strategies, and shows them how the combination of new, democratised, powerful emerging technologies are helping accelerate cultural, industrial and societal change. Matthew’s clients include Accenture, Bain & Co, Bank of America, Blackrock, Booz Allen Hamilton, Boston Consulting Group, Dell EMC, Dentons, Deutsche Bank, Deloitte, Deutsche Bank, Du Pont, E&Y, Fidelity, Goldman Sachs, HPE, Huawei, JP Morgan Chase, KPMG, Lloyds Banking Group, McKinsey & Co, PWC, Qualcomm, Rolls Royce, SAP, Samsung, Schroeder’s, Sequoia Capital, Sopra Steria, UBS, the UK’s HM Treasury, the USAF and many others.